The Presidency

By Prince Emeka Obasi, Business Hallmark December 6 – 12, 2010

An exciting new dimension has been added to the usually drab world of Nigerian politics. The emergence of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) is no doubt a major political event, with enormous potential of affecting not just the outcome of the 2011 presidential elections, but the future of politics in Nigeria and indeed, the future of the country itself. I foresaw this scenario sometime ago, when I predicted in a write-up in this column that the forthcoming elections will be a contest between Bola Tinubu and Ibrahim Babangida in reality.

I will explain that theory later. For social libertarians, including this reporter, there is much to learn and indeed cheer in the story of Tinubu’s emergence as a determining figure in Nigerian politics. For all those who have become disenchanted by the PDP and its shenanigans, especially its threat of metamorphosing into a one-party state, the Tinubu-led ACN provides a refreshing alternative. Indeed, a democracy that does not offer an alternative to the ruling party is morally vitiated and can hardly pass the test of true democracy.

I have long been an ardent admirer of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Asiwaju of Nigerian politics. Whereas he is not a perfect man and may not have done his best as Governor of Lagos State, nevertheless, his dogged support for democracy, true federalism, justice and equity more than compensates for whatever other shortcomings he may have. He is also an incredibly shrewd man who has an uncanny understanding of politics and the realities of Nigerian polity.

Tinubu is an Awoist and understands instinctively, like the late sage, that the logic of Nigeria is the perennial contest between the progressive forces represented by the South and the conservative forces of the North. Such divergent worldviews underpinned the intense rivalry between the late Awolowo and Sir Ahmadu Bello. It has always been, and remains my position, that Nigeria is largely a country of two ethnic nationalities — the Hausa Fulani and the Yoruba — and the worldview each represents. The third leg of the fabled Nigeria trinity, the Igbo, lost its footing in 1959 after the federal elections, when the leader of the NCNC, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, took the party into an alliance with the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC). Contemporary political commentators who are often puzzled by what some have described as the Igbo socio-economic and political decline should carefully examine that episode and its impact on the Igbo in Nigeria.

My thesis, which some eminent academics like Anya O. Anya have vehemently disagreed with, is that the NCNC and NPC accord effectively shut out the Igbo as a credible contender for power in Nigeria and reduced Nigeria to a duopoly — a country of two dominant nationalities and a host of fringe players. Clearly, the Igbo became a prominent member of the fringe group. Azikiwe allowed the Igbo viewpoint to be subsumed within the NPC, the Igbo voice withered and became muffled. On major national issues, it is often hard to hear what the Igbo viewpoint is, if any. Any unsentimental appraisal of the situation will reveal that often the Igbo is either supporting a Yoruba viewpoint or a Northern viewpoint.

The dominance of the North in the political leadership of Nigeria badly affected the standing of the Southwest, a situation worsened by the death of Awolowo. But the emergence of Chief Abiola on the political scene and the tragic circumstances of his election victory and annulment galvanized the Southwest and inspired a Yoruba renaissance. Obasanjo’s election in 1999 was a major manifestation of the Southwest political resurgence.

Yet, some would consider Obasanjo a traitor to the Yoruba cause. In 2003, he executed a breathtaking manoeuvre by tricking the mainstream Yoruba political party, the AD, into not fielding a presidential candidate and rather mobilizing support for the Obasanjo candidacy on the platform of the PDP. Not surprisingly, Obasanjo swept the polls and with it the Government Houses in all but one of the Southwest states. Overnight, Obasanjo dismantled the late Awolowo legacy and by a deft sleight of hand brought the Southwest into Nigeria’s political mainstream. Thus Obasanjo, a national leader of manifest credentials, equally achieved his other lifelong ambition of becoming the leader of the Yorubas.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the only surviving Governor in the AD governorship class of 1999, stepped into the vacuum and rallied to keep the flag flying. Tinubu was shrewd enough to realize that while the Obasanjo PDP may have annexed the Southwest, the hearts and minds of the people were with the culture and tradition of progressive politics created by Awo. So he set about rebuilding the structures of the Yoruba political party platform. Unknown to many, he had ample supply of raw materials.

The contemporary wisdom is that the main winner of the Awo–Sardauna feud of 1959 was the Sardauna. After all, he formed the Government and nominated one of his minions to head the Federal Government in Lagos as Prime Minister. Sardauna also worked very hard to diminish Awo’s status in his constituency, the Southwest, by sponsoring various insurrections against Awo and engineering his treason charges, trial and imprisonment. Sardauna’s astuteness in recognizing the strategic role of the military in politics and encouraging scores of Northern boys to enrol in the military ensured that the North would dominate the officer corps of the Armed Forces and consecutive military Governments, almost to the exclusion of the Yoruba.

But a more careful analysis will reveal that in reality, the winner was Awo. In opposition, Awo appropriated the moral high ground. As Premier of the Western Region, he set a pace of socio-educational development that was hitherto unprecedented. He launched a free education scheme which gave opportunities to millions of Yorubas. Nigeria today is more a product of Awolowo than of Ahmadu Bello. His progenies are now the leaders of technocrats, civic activists, upwardly mobile professionals, Pentecostal and orthodox religious leaders and adherents, non-governmental organizations, etc.

These are the new agents of change in Nigeria, the people fuelling the clamour for change and propelling the resurgence of the ACN. In the process, they have made Tinubu a key figure in all the permutations regarding the 2011 general elections.