The Presidency — By Prince Emeka Obasi
Business Hallmark Newspaper, February 8 – 14, 2010

Life can be very funny. About three years ago, when the then Governor of Lagos State, Ashiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu tapped his relatively obscure Chief of Staff, Mr. Babatunde Fashola as his preferred candidate for the Action Congress (AC) in the gubernatorial elections, all hell broke loose. Fashola had not featured in the list of potential front runners. As a matter of fact, he was not even a possible. As dark horses go, he was the darkest of them all. The choice rankled many AC stalwarts and for a brief period threatened to upset the political apple cart in Lagos State. A few political pundits even went as far as calling the guber elections for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on account of that development. In the event of course, PDP did not win. AC did and the rest, as the saying goes, is living history.

The only way to understand the crisis rocking the Tinubu-Fashola relationship now and more importantly to predict its outcome, is to appreciate why Tinubu made that choice.

As sad as it may be to some, the real truth is that Nigeria is not a true democracy. If by democracy we mean a government freely chosen by the people. At best, ours is a civilian Government, which is still transiting to full democracy.

I still don’t believe that impoverished countries can practice full democracy. But that is an academic point. At the end of their tenures in 2007, it was politically expedient for the outgoing governors to select their lackeys as successors. The reasons may not be noble, but they are certainly understandable. They needed protection, because as the Igbo proverb says, “there is no way you can search the wrapper of an old woman without seeing little bits of excrement”. There is also the other point that many of the outgoing Governors had developed illusions of grandeur and wanted to remain in power in perpetuity.

And it is not a question of whether it is right or wrong. It is simply a fact of life. It is a fundamental fact of politics that every incumbent is interested in who succeeds him in office. Even in advanced democracies in Europe and the United States, which we often like to cite as examples of perfection. The only difference is that in those countries, the system is not easy to manipulate. Former Russian President Vladimir Putin chose his Chief of Staff to succeed him.

Tinubu chose Fashola in 2007 primarily to protect him and also facilitate his dream of life Governorship of Lagos State. But sadly, Tinubu failed to realize the practical possibility of the twin objectives. He is not alone in this regard. Olusegun Obasanjo made the same mistake in Yar’Adua. All over the country, many godfathers are in agony over hitherto godsons who have broken rank and proclaimed their independence. It happened to Jim Nwobodo over his former protegee, Chimaroke Nnamani. Today, Nnamani is wondering where he went wrong with Enugu State Governor, Sullivan Chime. Chime, it will be recalled, was Nnamani’s hand picked successor who struck out on his own as soon as he obtained the PDP gubernatorial ticket. It is part of the hubris of politics that a former Governor will actually believe that an incumbent, exercising the same powers he once did, will remain his puppet for ever. But then what is politics, if not a game of hubris and as classically defined, “the art of the possible.”

But these men are nobody’s fools. To ensure that their gambits succeed, they put in place certain measures. In Abia state for instance, former Governor Kalu after hand picking his successor, put barricades around him. He chose members of the State House just as Tinubu did in Lagos, as well as other key officers of government, thereby leaving the Executive Governor almost naked, or in office and not in power. Indeed, of all the godfathers, two are the most dangerous and worthy of close attention. Orji Kalu and Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The reason is simple, they control their own political structures. Immediately Governors T.A. Orji and Babatunde Fashola were elected, I called their second term chances. Really, it will be one of the seven wonders of the world if Kalu gives Governor T.A. Orji a second term ticket. And it is not a question of what T.A. Orji does rightly or wrongly. It is simply that it does not fit into Kalu’s world view. Or Tinubu’s, for that matter. But more on T.A. Orji in a latter piece.

Tinubu’s political philosophy is to control the S/West political hemisphere if he cannot be President. But in order to do that he realizes that he has to remain politically relevant. And dominating Lagos State politics is his sure way of doing that. He needs the huge resources of Lagos to lubricate his political machine.

However, in all his permutations, Tinubu apparently did not factor in Fashola’s interests and inclinations. Fashola has displayed a very dignified and positive attitude in the governorship. A quiet, self-effacing and decidedly unambitious man, Fashola has connected with millions of Lagosians in a manner not even Tinubu did in his eight years. He has displayed a genuine concern to give Lagos a new face and more importantly, to dispense with politics as usual. He represents to many a new face of leadership, without the mystifications that characterize high political offices in Nigeria. In the process, Fashola has become a cult hero to many, including in fact this reporter. I am not quite sure that Tinubu banked on Fashola becoming so popular. But that is the reality of life now.

Clash Of The Titans:

Fashola is very popular. He is without doubt the most popular politician in Lagos State now and possibly one of the most popular in the country. I have even heard many people wish he could run for the Presidency.

But for all his popularity, he does not control the AC and Fashola’s re-nomination for a second tour of duty depends on Tinubu. Will Tinubu allow Fashola a second term ticket? That is the million naira question and it is directly at the heart of the current political rumpus. Tinubu is under pressure. A second term ticket for Fashola was not part of his bargain. But Fashola has become too popular to be just dropped like that.

As the incumbent, he has his own aces. Withholding Alpha Beta’s revenue generation contract is part of the cards. Tinubu has hit back, by calling in his storm troopers, the State House of Assembly. Their investigation of Fashola is part of the arsenal he is deploying to rattle Fashola. I doubt the fight will get dirty as some fear, even though political fights can often acquire some dynamism of their own, and get out of hand. But watch out, there will soon be a declaration of armistice and consequent cessation of hostilities. Fashola will renew the contract. The House may allow the investigations to lapse. But still the big question of Fashola’s second tenure has not been answered. Tinubu is afraid that Fashola will become unmanageable in his second tenure. That fear is well-founded.

Given the current impasse, personal trust has broken down between the duo. If Tinubu is to succeed in remaining the godfather of Lagos state he would be constrained to pull the plug under Fashola now.

Of course, it will be messy, but when the smoke clears, he will be in a stronger position than to be a monument in a Fashola second term.

For Fashola, as Shakespeare wrote, “there is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the floods, leads to fortune; omitted, all their voyages are bound in misery…”

If he wants to emerge as an authentic political leader, now is the time. If he does not rise to the challenge, by calling for a duel, he will never, repeats never, become a political leader. As for that second tenure, that will all go up in smoke. We shall maintain a watching brief.