The Presidency — By Prince Emeka Obasi
Business Hallmark Newspaper, May 3–9, 2010

Unknown to many, the 2011 Presidential elections is shaping up to be a titanic battle between former Lagos Governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu and former President Ibrahim Babangida. Obviously, this will come as a surprise to many, especially since Tinubu is not likely to be a candidate in the presidential polls. But Tinubu has an important stake in the polls — the survival of his political party, the Action Congress and more crucially, the future of the Yoruba race. Tinubu has emerged as the defacto leader of the Awo faction of the South West. He is the generalissimo of the Yoruba army and has executed the brilliant strategy of positioning the AC as the umbrella representative of all the progressive-minded associations both at home and abroad. Whether it is Save Nigeria, Campaign for Democracy, anti-corruption crusading etc., they are all variants of the Tinubu organization. The talk on the street is that he is the financier and motivator of all these organizations.

Prof. Wole Soyinka represents the intellectual arm of the movement, with his moral weight and international connections. He also brings to the table another important asset — control of the media. Unknown to many, Prof. Soyinka is perhaps the most influential person in the mass media in Nigeria. Many journalists either trained under him or were indoctrinated in his activist ideology as fraternity members or plain admirers of his mercurial intelligence and forceful personality. Between him and Tinubu, they maintain an iron grip on the media and major newspapers and other publications. Additionally, Tinubu has invested heavily in the mass media and easily ranks as the biggest investor in the media ever in Nigerian history. All these investments were targeted at fighting for power. And now the hour has arrived.

The way I see it, 2011 will be one of Tinubu’s greatest battles ever in more ways than one. It is beyond a mere election of choosing the President of Nigeria. It will mark the first step of the Yoruba march to nationhood, autonomy and independence. In case you are shocked by this, let me give you a teaser. Recently, at a book launch organized by the Afenifere Renewal Group at the Lagos Airport Hotel, Prof. Akintoye advocated the breakaway of the Yoruba from the Federal Republic as “the obvious best option” to solving Nigeria’s myriad problems. At the same event, Tinubu said that 2011 will be a watershed in the annals of Nigeria’s history. But it was Gov. Raji Fashola who excited my interest with his rhetorical questions: “What is Yoruba agenda? Where do we want to be in the nation? Do we want to be in the federation or outside the federation? What are the rules of engagement? Rules that shouldn’t be broken, that should be the Yoruba ethos? The question is where do we go from here? What next?”.

Tinubu is currently shopping for a viable Northern candidate to run the 2011 elections with. Buhari’s name has come up severally, but nothing is certain now. Whatever happens, his prayer is for Babangida to emerge on the PDP platform, so that he would be able to frame the election as a contest between “good” and “evil,” “progressive vs conservatives.” The Babangida name is pure red meat to the Tinubu camp. It infuses them with vigour and gives them a cause to fight for. It is not necessarily because IBB is evil, but because he represents the very ideals the Tinubu crowd fights against. But the truth is more complex than that. In their world view, Babangida is a derivative of the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy and is an inheritor of the conservative world view of the Ahmadu Bello/Balewa government of 1959. Awo never really submitted to the Sardauna’s vision of Nigeria. That sharp divide between the two opposing visions is still alive today albeit in different forms.

The truth is that the average Yoruba does not accept or even understand why he should be ruled by a Northerner. The average Yoruba is more educated, more exposed, richer and harbours an innate superiority complex over the average Northerner. And yet, until Obasanjo, had endured decades of rule or indeed misrule by the North.

Tinubu and co. want an end to all that. And they are better equipped now than at any other time in history to mount a credible challenge for power. They have amassed tons of money and can match either Babangida or anyone else, “naira for naira, stock fish for stock fish and if need be, rice for rice!” It does not appear to me that IBB, as intelligent as he is, fully realizes what he is up against. He is not the only one. Actually, few Nigerians understand the enormity of what is going on. But I assure you, the Americans do. The contest for power now is assuming a frightening dimension. 2011 will expose the vulnerabilities of Nigeria and its yawning fault lines. It would appear as if the genie will be let out of the bottle and Nigeria may finally confront its morbid destiny.

However, the scenario will be remarkably different if IBB does not emerge as the PDP presidential flag bearer. Then Tinubu and co. will fight the election on a markedly reduced decibel. However, if IBB contests and wins, autonomy and independence. Going by present zoning arrangements, the Yoruba is billed to produce the president in 2043. A leading member of the Yoruba intelligentsia, Dr. Reuben, had already manifested the Yoruba impatience with the zoning arrangement. In a recent article in The Guardian, he argued that whereas he sympathizes with the logic of zoning, the nation should establish a cut-off point to jettison the arrangement. His preferred date is 2020. Interestingly, by that date, all the zones will not have produced the president.

Take this from me, there is no way the richest, most educated, most politically astute and informed zone in Nigeria will spend about four decades in the political wilderness. Definitely, something is bound to give. Nigeria’s day of reckoning may be well on its way. Remember, you read it here first!

Concluded