The Presidency — By Prince Emeka Obasi
Business Hallmark Newspaper, October 28–November 1, 2009

In 49 years of power, Babangida is arguably the greatest Nigerian leader so far and the one who has had the most impact. Babangida had clear ideas of the direction he wanted Nigeria to take; a modern country with diversified and vibrant economy that is private-sector led and a flourishing democracy. Babangida would have probably accomplished all of these and earned a place of honour in the national history book, but for the debacle of the June 12 presidential election result annulment, which rubbished his name.

Notwithstanding, he still remains arguably Nigeria’s most visionary leader and it is mainly from his perspective that I will analyse the North’s vision of Nigeria.

The Northern psychology is haunted by one dominant sentiment; the inherent disadvantage in its relations with the South. Because of the lop-sided Southern advantage in education, the North suffers immense disadvantages in virtually every sector of life, except perhaps the armed and paramilitary forces and the police. Even in those sectors, a consistent policy of quota system has increasingly sought to blunt the edges of the sharp divide. In order to respond to the clear disadvantage and allow their people opportunities, successive Northern leaders introduced such novel policies as quota system, Federal Character etc.

Unfortunately, while such policies may have succeeded in the short run to ensure that Northerners had their fair share, or even as some would say, more than their share, it created a dangerous situation in the North, and to a large extent the entire country. It is a fundamental principle of economics that markets respond to incentives. In this instance, the average Northerner, weaned on a staple diet of patronage, lacked the incentive to become self-reliant and enterprising. In the circumstances, he became wholly dependent on the state. The entrepreneurial ethic, which is the requisite essential for the development of any economy or society, was sorely lacking. In market terms, we would say that the North gradually became uncompetitive and critically unable to add value. A region which used to be the national bread basket and internationally renowned for its groundnut pyramids regressed into a virtual basket case peopled by contractors, commissioned agents, import license hawkers, politicians, public officers and almajiris.

For as long as the economy boomed, such a regime could survive and even thrive. But then the economy tanked and Nigeria’s oil boom burst. In response to the crisis, the government of President Babangida introduced the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) which was anchored on free market economics. That sounded a death knell for the culture of patronage and cronyism. Commercialisation, privatisation and the retreat of government from business set the stage for the crisis in the North. Interestingly, it was the Northern-born Babangida who initiated it. Obviously, he did not intend it as punishment against his people. It was only a realistic response to crippling economic crisis. But it has had disastrous effects on the North, as increasingly, they discovered that they could no longer thrive.

The situation was exacerbated during the regime of the hapless Obasanjo. He deepened the privatisation programme and pursued market economics with enhanced vigour. But he was also inept and harboured deep grudges against the North for all manners of alleged wrongdoings, both real and imagined. He therefore did not cut them much slack, not that he cut anyone else for that matter. But whereas other parts of the country had become used to thriving in the face of adversity, the North, unable to cope, lagged behind, seething and biding their time. Their time arrived in May 2007 when President Yar’Adua was sworn in as President and Commander-in-Chief.

It is President Yar’Adua’s response to the situation, his appointment of predominantly Northerners to high government posts and pursuit of policies that are seen by many as mainly pro-North, that inspired this write-up. Perhaps, I should restate again my admiration for Yar’Adua and support for him and his government. I am deeply aware that he is not much liked especially among the media and intellectual elite. And he has been the butt of jokes and bald humour by those who castigate him for all manner of reasons. But I believe he is a decent man who is honest, committed and patriotic and who lacks the messianic complex, the propensity for evil, the aggrandising tendency and the selfishness of Olusegun Obasanjo. I am determined to keep supporting him.

Nevertheless, I am worried by the signals from his government. He appears to have reverted to typical mode; appointing Northerners to high government posts, enunciating policies that are patently Northern-oriented etc. I don’t quite mind the appointments. Given Obasanjo’s bias, there was need to show a bit of nepotism in order to reassure his immediate constituency. But what worries me deeply is the lack of a fundamental appreciation of the unviability of the old order, and the need to begin the arduous task of transforming Nigeria from its unproductive past to a new age.

Any honest appraisal of the Nigerian situation will reveal a startling scenario. Nigeria is a country of great mineral riches and densely populated by ill-educated mass of people, most of whom do not add value. Thus, the average Nigerian is basically parasitic, depending on the government as the source of his livelihood. The public sector is still the dominant player in the economy with feeble efforts being made to catalyse the private sector.

Meanwhile, the population is growing exponentially, with about one million young people being churned out of institutions of higher learning yearly. No one has any accurate record of the number of this large army that are unemployed. Sadly, no one appears to worry. Even the basic building blocks of a modern economy are tragically lacking. Power, infrastructure and good quality education are virtually non-existent. The only constant in Nigeria is the oil and the nation’s ever-dependence on it. Even the putative democracy has not taken root as firmly as it ought to. Olusegun Obasanjo’s shenanigans have all but doomed democracy.